Will California Politics Be Impacted By Changing Demographics

Demographics are not destiny, but steady and anticipated changes to the electorate play an of import role in defining the landscape of American politics. Most demographic groups have a political lean, so a group increasing or decreasing in size over time will tend to benefit one party or type of politics over some other. The most well-known example is the growth of the nonwhite population in the United States, which—since nonwhites tend to lean heavily Autonomous—is typically viewed equally tilting the balloter terrain somewhat toward the Democrats over time as well every bit increasing the weight of nonwhite voters within the Democratic Party over fourth dimension. But other changes are important, such as the turn down of noncollege educated voters, particularly whites; the crumbling of the adult population; and the rise of new generations to supplant older ones.

In this report, we volition explore the outcome of these changes on the demographic composition of the electorate and, specially, on the composition of the two major political parties. Reflecting the latter focus, this analysis will not focus on how many individuals from a given demographic group voted or will likely vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in a item election. Rather, information technology focuses on how many people who voted or are likely to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in a particular election belong to a given demographic group.

While the former tells us most the political leanings of a given group, the latter answers different questions. While size is not the sole determinant of a group's influence within a political party, it is a significant input and affects how parties formulate positions and present themselves to the electorate. As we head into the 2020 presidential primaries, we are jump to detect the furnishings of political party composition on how candidates for the presidential nomination—especially Democratic candidates, due to their intense contest for voters—position themselves to garner primary votes from different demographic groups within their party.

Our investigation turns upward a number of key findings that illuminate how significantly the compositions of the Autonomous and Republican parties accept changed over the years and are likely to change in the future. We show that the 2016 election was the most graphically divisive election in the past 36 years. The parties were more divided past age, race, and education than in whatsoever prior election in modern political history.

Reflecting these intensifying divisions, the parties were more compositionally different in 2016 than at whatsoever indicate in the prior 36 years. This ballot was the first presidential election white noncollege voters did non make upwardly a plurality of both parties' coalitions, with white college voters exceeding the share of white noncollege voters in the Democratic coalition. Nonwhites will keep to grow as a share of both parties' coalitions, especially Hispanics. Nosotros notice that, past 2032, Hispanic voters volition surpass black voters as the largest overall nonwhite voting group. And, by 2036, black voters volition make up a larger share of the Democratic coalition than white noncollege voters. On the other hand, we find that white voters will continue to pass up through 2036 as a share of both the Republican and Autonomous party coalitions, though this pass up with exist considerably quicker in fast-growing states such as Arizona and Texas that are already less white.

White noncollege voters, in particular, are projected to refuse rapidly as a share of both parties' coalitions across all states through 2036, although the sharpest declines will, again, be in fast-growing states. Generational changes will also exist substantial. Past 2036, Millennial and Generation Z voters—the two youngest generations—volition exist heavily represented in both the Democratic Party and Republican Party coalitions, while the influence of Baby Boomer and the Silent Generation voters—the 2 oldest generations—will radically refuse. White Millennial and Generation Z voters, in particular, will develop a large presence in the Republican coalition and, combined with nonwhites, will give the GOP a new look in all states—even slowgrowing ones such as Wisconsin and Ohio.

Finally, our data indicate that, while shifting turnout and back up rates can be pivotal for winning elections, these changes are likely to take a relatively minor impact on the overall makeup of the electorate and party coalitions in the future. Thus, most of the outcome of demographic change on future party coalitions is already baked in and will reshape party coalitions—in a sense, whether these parties like it or not.